NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY

Electricity demand

A few years ago, the prediction about electricity demand was more optimistic. It means, that the GDPs (gross domestic product) growth had been assumed. As a example in Poland, the forecasts of electricity demand to year 2030, indicated the increase by 54% in comparison to year 2006. Exactly data, worked out by the Polish Energy Market Agency (pl. Agencja Rynku Energii, ARE), were published in Polish government document "Nuclear Energy Programme" (pl. "Program Polskiej Energetyki Jadrowej"), but they seem to be incorrect.

After financial crisis, situation has changed and prediction has changed. Crash slow down all world economy, and in consequence electricity demand has decreased. The newest forecasts indicate smaller increase, then older prediction. World Energy Outlook 2008, published by International Energy Agency, assumes the annual growth by 1,2% in 2006-2030 period. In Poland, such reports aren't publicising annually. In last, just mentioned above, report from 2007, made by Energy Development Agency, the estimation of 2% annual growth in electricity demand can be found. It means, that in 2030, demand will be higher by 54%.

Figure 1. Electric energy demand forecast in perspective of year 2030 (OECD Europe)
Source: Own development, based on "International Energy Outlook 2010" ,U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy [2],
"World Energy Outlook 2008", International Energy Agency [3]
and
W . M i e l c z a r s k i "Program polskiej energetyki jadrowej", "Energetyka cieplna i zawodowa" , 10/2010 [4]

As Fig. 1. shows, most actual researches, predict a total growth at last of 40%. It is important to admit, that projection of 54% growth is rather not realistic. Polish Nuclear Energy Programme unfortunately uses, obsolete information to create government document, which undoubtedly will have significant impact on the structure of nuclear power industry in Poland [4]. European Commission also updated the prediction in document "EU energy trends to 2030". Estimation, based on graph, indicates to growth by 27% to year 2030 in comparison to year 2006. In the Fig. 2. the difference to previous scenario is illustrated.

Figure 2. Final and Energy Branch Net Electricity Demand [TWh]
Source: "EU energy trends to 2030", European Commision, 2010 [5]
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